Japan focus on sunken Korean Ship
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Comment
07-21-2010 21:08:45 David
The investigators did not rush to judgment - the conclusion of the investigation was predetermined by the US and S. Korea. There is a pretty credible rumor going around intelligence circles that the sinking of the ship was the work of the CIA rather than the N. Koreans. The main purpose of this Gulf of Tonkin type operation was to pressure the Japanese into accepting the Okinawa base. Putting pressure on North Korea as well as the Chinese was an added bonus.

US Professors Raise doubts about report on South Korean Ship Sinking
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A new study by U.S. researchers raises questions about the investigation into the sinking of a South Korean navy ship. International investigators blamed a North Korean torpedo, raising tensions on the Korean peninsula.

Researchers J.J. Suh and Seung-Hun Lee say the South Korean Joint Investigation Group made a weak case when it concluded that North Korea was responsible for sinking the Cheonan.

Speaking in Tokyo Friday, the two said the investigation was riddled with inconsistencies and cast "profound doubt" on the integrity of the investigation. "The only conclusion one can draw on the basis of the evidence is that there was no outside explosion," Suh said. "The JIG completely failed to produce evidence that backs up its claims that there was an outside explosion."

Rush to judgment inconsistencies in S. Korea
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III. Citations

1 The May 20th report released by the ROK is actually an interim report. It plans to issue the final report by the end of July, 2010. Not only did the ROK government rush to judgement on the cause of the Cheonan incident, as we argue in this article, but it has also rushed to punitive measures against the DPRK, including urging the United Nations Security Council to act on the basis of the interim report.

2 One of the 3 civilian experts, recommended by the opposition Democratic Party, was expelled from the JIG before it released its report. The person expelled was then charged by the South Korean Navy with “defaming” it for propagating the “false allegation” that the Cheonan had been grounded. Kim Kwikǔn, “Haegun, sinsangch’ǒlwiwon ‘myǒngyehueson’ hyǒmǔi koso [Navy Charges Shin Sang-Chul of ‘Defaming’ It,”] Yonhap News, May 19, 2010.

3 CSI or Crime Scene Investigation is a popular U.S. TV series that depicts police use of advanced forensic and scientific techniques to investigate and solve crimes.

4 Yun Dǒkyong, co-chairman of the JIG, admitted at the hearing of the Parliament’s Special Committee on the Cheonan on May 24 that “we are continuing our simulation and the final result of the simulation will come out in July,” conceding that “the simulation is not yet completed to show the water column [that is allegedly produced as a result of the bubble effect], but it will be all shown when the simulation is completed.” Pak Jǒngi, another co-chairman, added that “the Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials [that is in charge of the simulation] said it would complete the simulation by July 15th.” Kim Namgwon and Kim Pǒmhyǒn, “Kimgukpang, ‘Puk, simnijǒn konggyǒkhamyǒn chǔkkak taeǔng [Defense Minister Kim, ‘Will Immediately Respond if North Attacks [Our] Psychological Warfare’],” Yonhap News, May 24, 2010. The latter quote is from “Ch’ǒanhamt’ǔkwi, ‘mulgidung chonjaeyǒbu’ nonnan [Cheonan Special Committee, Controversy over ‘Presence of Water Column’], Yonhap News, May 24, 2010.

5 The JIG’s simulation results are available here. Although the ROK defense ministry (MND) has updated the simulation, as of July 2, 2010 it still fails to show how the Cheonan was severed.

6 Suh Jae-Jung, “Bǒbǔlhyogwanǔn ǒbssǒtta [There was no bubble effect],” Pressian, May 27, 2010. Chǒn Tonghyǒk, “P’okbalhu 1ch’okkaji … ch’ǒnanham paemit irǒtke jjigǔrǒjyǒtda [Up to a second after explosion … The Chonan’s bottom deformed this way],” Dong-a saiǒnsǔ [Dong-A Science], May 28, 2010.

7 Suh, op.cit.

8 Suh’s calculation on the basis of the formula in the Australian report, Reid, Warren D. "The Response of Surface Ships to Underwater Explosions." Melbourne, Victoria, Australia: Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Department of Defence, 1996.

9 Ibid., page 1. The Ministry of National Defense initially stated that 70% of a torpedo’s explosive energy will be a shock wave effect. After Suh’s article asked why the Cheonan betrays no signs of shock wave damage, the MND decreased the ratio to 54% and 46%. The ratio varies depending on the kind of explosive and the mix of other ingredients such as aluminum powder. For the MND’s initial position, see Kim Byǒngnyun, “ǒroi kiroi, sujung p’okbalǔi wiryǒk [Torpedo and Sea Mine, the Power of Underwater Explosion],” Ministry of National Defense, April 28, 2010. For its newer numbers, see Kim Byǒngnyun, “Ǒroi sujungp’okbal ch’ungbyǒkp’a bǒbǔlhyogwaro sǒnch’e p’agoe [Torpedo’s Underwater Explosion Destroys Ship with Shock Wave and Bubble Effect],” Ministry of National Defense, May 22, 2010.

10 S.-H. Lee, “Comments on the Section "Adsorbed Material Analysis" of the CheonAn Report made by the South Korean Civil and Military Joint Investigation Group (CIV-MIL JIG),” ArXiv, June 6, 2010 here.

11 "Adsorbed materials" does not appear in the English version of the ROK's Cheonan investigative report but does appear as an English insertion in the Korean version. AM-1, AM-2 and AM-3 are designations created by Seunghun Lee in a scientific paper authored by him that discusses the JIG's analysis of the adsorbed materials.

12 Kang Yanggu, “Ch’ǒanham deit’ǒ ch’imyǒngjǒk oryu… aluminyumǔn kǒjitmal anhae [The Cheonan data has fatal flaws… aluminum does not lie],” Pressian, June 24, 2010.
13 Yang suspects, on a careful analysis of the JIG’s EDS data, that the AM-1 and AM-2 are not aluminum oxides but more likely aluminum hydroxide, Al(OH)3, found in nature commonly as gibbsite. Kang Yanggu and Hwang Chunho, “Isanghan naraǔi ch’ǒnanham … ‘aluminium sanhwamulǔn ǒbssǒtta [The Cheonan in Wonderland … There was no aluminum oxide],” Pressian, June 30, 2010 and Hankyere, June 30, 2010.

14 Lee, June 6, 2010, op. cit.

15 S.-H. Lee and P. Yang, “Was the "Critical Evidence" presented in the South Korean Official Cheonan Report Fabricated?” June 28, 2010.

16 S.-H. Lee, “Ch’ǒnanham habjodanǔi ‘gyǒljǒngjǒk chǔnggǒ’nǔn chojaktoetta [The JIG’s ‘critical evidence’ is fabricated],” Pressian, June 16, 2010. For the Ministry of National Defense’s response, see “Mo int’ǒnet maech’eesǒ pododoen ‘isǔnghǒn kyosu chujang(1)’e daehan dapbyǒnimnida [Response to ‘Professor Lee Senghun’s allegation (1) reported in an internet media],” Ministry of National Defense, June 21, 2010.

17 Lee and Yang, op. cit.

18 The JIG argues that when the torpedo exploded, it produced heat higher than 3000 degrees Celsius and that aluminum powder in the explosive material melted and transformed into amorphous aluminum oxides, which bonded with the propeller of the torpedo. Since aluminum oxides in powder form cannot bond with another metal, it must be in liquid state. Given that aluminum’s melting temperature is 660 degrees and aluminum oxide’s melting point is 2000 degrees Celsius, the rear part of the torpedo must have been subjected to heat of at least somewhere between 660 and 2000 degrees Celsius, if the JIG claim is right. Whether 660, 2000 or 3000 degrees Celsius, it cannot be scientifically explained that none of this heat affected the ink marking.

19 The ROK defense ministry reported on June 29 that the ink is made of “solvent blue-5.” Recognizing that it is a common ingredient used in markers worldwide, the ministry conceded that “it might be difficult to conclude that the ink is made in North Korea.” A military official added that the result of the ink analysis will not be included in the final report on the Cheonan incident due to be completed by the end of July. “’1bǒn’ingkǔsǒ solbentbǔlu5 sǒngbun gǒmch’ul [Solvent Blue-5 Detected from ‘1bǒn’ Ink],” Yonhap News, June 29, 2010.

20 Despite its name – the Joint Civil-Military Investigation Group – the absolute majority of its members, 65 out of 74, work for the Ministry of National Defense or MND-related think tanks and institutes. One of its two heads, Pak Chǒng-I, was a three star general at the time of the investigation, and was subsequently promoted to a four star status after the release of the report.

IV. Nautilus invites your responses

The Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network invites your responses to this essay. Please send responses to: bscott@nautilus.org. Responses will be considered for redistribution to the network only if they include the author's name, affiliation, and explicit consent.
Last Modified: 15 Jul 2010